Abstract from Rémi Bastien's talk
Is the hypermobility of our modern world possible without fossil fuels ?
The domestication of coal and, above all, oil has accelerated the movement of goods and people exponentially. Mobility is not a consequence of prosperity, but rather the opposite. As a result, we've become accustomed to bringing our goods from the ends of the earth, or traveling far and wide by plane for our vacations or business. This has boosted our economies. The abundance and affordability of fossil fuels has allowed us to use, and even abuse, this limitless mobility until recently. Climate constraints will force us to reduce our use of fossil fuels to zero before 2050. Will we be able to find alternative energies, or will we have to accept limits on the mobility of goods and people, or a combination of the two ?
The study's conclusions show that :
- The mobility of goods and people is correlated with GDP.
- People's daily mobility follows a " time budget " of one hour on average, and the distances travelled depend on travellers' incomes. A citizen of the United States travels an average of 80 km per day, while a citizen of Central Africa travels just 4 km per day.
- The transport sector is currently 98 % dependent on oil... from which we must be free by 2050, but no form of energy is as abundant, inexpensive and suitable as oil.
- Maritime and air transport have no available solutions for maintaining their traffic growth without oil. Sobriety will be unavoidable.
- Other sectors, such as road transport, have the electric alternative, but this will require profound changes.
- We will therefore have to combine the adoption of technological solutions with the necessary sobriety to free ourselves from oil and, more broadly, from fossil fuels.
