Environmental change, climate crisis and emerging infectious diseases : can we predict the next epidemics ?

The scientific consensus is almost unanimous: greenhouse gas emissions linked to human activities are causing climate change, particularly warming, which is becoming more pronounced in the absence of drastic measures. Modelling by the Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an average temperature rise of between 1.5 and 5.8°C by 2100. Climate change will, of course, have an impact on human, animal and plant health. It is generally assumed that these effects will be mainly negative, but it is difficult to assess them, and modelling has many limitations due to the lack of available parameters. Research has focused on heat stress, extreme climatic events, food and water insecurity and some expected public health effects, particularly in the field of infectious and parasitic diseases, especially vector-borne diseases. These areas of research need to be strengthened. The expansion of mosquito vector populations is undoubtedly one of the most indisputable effects, leading us to predict, for example, a significant spread of dengue fever and malaria.