Democratization and Ethnic (De)Homogenization

The second lecture focuses on the centrality of the demographic factor in explaining the transformation of European liberal democracies and European welfare states. It argues that while until recently, the relationship between democracy and demography was usually thought of in Malthusian terms (too many people and not enough resources), the demographic shock voiced in parts of Europe today is radically different. It is caused by political fears of demographic decline, depopulation, and a widening gap in opportunities and social attitudes between metropolitan centers and outlying areas. The picture is especially bleak in Central and Eastern Europe, where fertility is low and outmigration is high. The United Nations estimates that since the 1990s, the nations of this region have lost about 6 percent of their collective population, or about eighteen-million persons. If these people formed a country, it would be nearly as populous as the Czech Republic and Hungary combined. The lecture discusses the diverging paths of ethnic homogenization and ethnic diversity in the West of Europe and the East of Europe since World War I and its significance in explaining the nature of Central European populism of today.