The magnitude of migration : realities and perceptions

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This last lecture of the year extended the previous one. A final development was devoted to the predictive power of the Worldwide Gallup Survey, which aggregates polls conducted in 2013-2016 in 156 countries, among a total of 587,000 people aged 15 or over, representative of 98 % of the world's adult population (assertion supported by a detailed appendix by country).

This compilation gives rise to the calculation of a much-publicized index of " migration potentielle ", the potential net migration index, which exploits the following question : " Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? . " If yes, in which country ? " (Only one answer possible).

Worldwide, around the years 2013-2016, 14 % of adults would like to emigrate, i.e. 710 million potential migrants. The inclusion of 2017 brought this figure to 15 %. The preferred destinations are the USA (147 million migrants, including 19 million from China), the UK (35 million), Canada (36 million), France (32 million), Australia (30 million), Saudi Arabia (25 million), Germany (28 million), Spain (20 million).

Still "in an ideal world", 34 % of sub-Saharan adults would like to leave their country, including a third for the USA, 14 % for another sub-Saharan African country, 11 % for the UK and just 6 % for France.

A closer look at the data (carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Institute) reveals that Westerners also dream of emigrating: 27 % of Germans, 27 % of Britons, 18 % of French (i.e. around five times more than expatriations observed). As for the Italians, hit by the social and political crisis, they are as numerous as the Sub-Saharans in wanting to live elsewhere.

What are we to make of such a survey? Two other questions have been included in the Gallup surveys, which radically alter the picture. Asked whether theyare planning to movein thenext 12 months, only 10 % of potential migrants responded positively, i.e. 1.5 % of all adults. What's more, of those migrants planning to move within the year, only a third have "begun preparations", i.e. 0.5 % of adults. In other words, there's a long way to go from desire to project, just as there's a long way to go from project to realization. This illustrates the major importance of question wording in such surveys. In the light of these additional questions, the question on the desire to live elsewhere "ideally and if the opportunity arose" takes on its full meaning; it doesn't reflect potential migration, it offers the opportunity to formulate a critical appraisal of the country's situation. In Hirschman's words, "voice" is expressed in the language of"exit". We are forced to conclude that the "potential migration indicator" has little predictive power. It should be noted that the polling institute does not ask about the progress of the projects, and that the media simply follow suit. Faced with these communication strategies, which are designed to heighten public concern about migration from the South and, more particularly, from Africa, the role of the demographer is neither to reassure nor to alarm, but to re-establish the facts, through a critical reading of data production, which can calmly fuel public debate.