Résumé
Global warming has heightened concerns over links between climate change and conflict. This concern has encouraged current social science research on possible links as well as historical studies examining statistical associations or case studies of past climate and conflict. Unfortunately, these current and historical perspectives have rarely been in dialogue, leaving important questions unanswered: Are present associations and pathways between climate and conflict new or old? Do historical narratives present misleading analogies or useful scenarios for the future? What can historical research learn from the data and methods of current social science, and what might current research learn from long-term historical perspectives? This lecture will address these questions, building on results of a recent interdisciplinary workshop as well as examples from the presenter’s work. Insights from current climate-conflict research—including analysis of complex pathways between climate and conflict and indirect, delayed, and displaced disaster impacts—invite re-evaluation of methods and conclusions in historical research and indicate ways that historical researchers could take advantage of increasingly high-resolution data on past climate and societies. Moreover, historical research illustrates persistent patterns and provides compelling narratives for interpreting and communicating current climate-conflict associations and scenarios.
